A Techno-Economic Framework for Natural Gas Pipeline Tariff Determination Under State Budget Financing: Evidence from The Semarang-Batang Open-Access Transmission Pipeline, Indonesia

Aji Agraning Bawono; Sutrasno Kartohardjono

doi:10.29017/scog.v49i2.2117

Authors

Aji Agraning Bawono BPH Migas
Sutrasno Kartohardjono Universitas Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29017/scog.v49i2.2117

Keywords:

natural gas pipeline tariff, APBN financing, state capital participation (PMN), state property (BMN), cost-of-service regulation, techno-economic analysis

Abstract

Natural gas pipeline tariff regulation in Indonesia has historically been designed for investor-financed infrastructure, where tariffs must recover capital costs at a commercially determined weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The Semarang-Batang Transmission Pipeline (Cisem Phase I)—the first open-access transmission pipeline in Indonesia constructed under State Budget (APBN) financing—demands a fundamentally different tariff framework. This study develops and evaluates two alternative tariff formulation models tailored to government-funded infrastructure: (i) the State Capital Participation (PMN) scheme, which recovers capital at the government's retail sukuk coupon rate (IRR = 3.97%), and (ii) the State Property (BMN) scheme, which waives capital recovery entirely and charges only a management fee (CAPEX = 0). Results show that the BMN scheme delivers the lowest tariff of USD 0.279/MSCF, representing 55.7% below the conventional WACC-based tariff (USD 0.630/MSCF) and 25.0% below the PMN scheme (USD 0.372/MSCF). Sensitivity analysis confirms the BMN scheme's structural advantage: it eliminates IRR-driven tariff volatility and maximizes affordability for industrial end-users. These findings provide a replicable techno-economic framework and a practical policy basis for BPH Migas in determining transportation tariffs for APBN-financed pipeline infrastructure across Indonesia.

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