Predictive Modeling of Pipeline Erosion in Multiphase Flow Using OLGA Simulation and Response Surface Methodology (RSM)

Bilal Ahmed; Syed Mohammad Mahmood; Mysara Eissa Mohyaldinn; Muhammad Jawad Khan; Fahd Saeed Alakbari

doi:10.29017/scog.v49i2.2078

Authors

Bilal Ahmed Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
Syed Mohammad Mahmood Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
Mysara Eissa Mohyaldinn Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
Muhammad Jawad Khan Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS
Fahd Saeed Alakbari King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29017/scog.v49i2.2078

Keywords:

erosional velocity ratio, flow assurance, surrogate modeling, superficial fluid velocity, OLGA, DOE, ANOVA

Abstract

Pipeline erosion is a significant issue in the oil and gas production sector, especially in multiphase flow systems. Predicting erosion in the lab is expensive and time-consuming because it requires elaborate flow loops. This study developed a hybrid modeling framework integrating OLGA multiphase flow simulation with Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to predict the erosional velocity ratio (EVR) under clean service gas condensate flow conditions. The EVR was determined using the API RP 14E erosional velocity approach available in OLGA. A Box–Behnken design with 46 simulation cases was used to examine the influence of superficial gas velocity, superficial liquid velocity, pipe diameter, pressure, and temperature on EVR behavior. The results demonstrated that pipe diameter dominates EVR variation (75.28%), followed by superficial liquid velocity (18.38%) and gas velocity (6.59%), while temperature (0.31%) and pressure (0.03%) are negligible. An ANOVA (analysis of variance) also confirmed the OLGA simulation results by developing a robust quadratic model, achieving an R² of 0.9937 and validation R², RMSE, and MAE values of approximately 0.9904, 0.016, and 0.011, respectively, indicating that the model accurately forecasts EVR across a range of operating conditions. This model could aid in pipeline design optimization and enable rapid monitoring of erosion to enhance flow pipeline safety and service life.

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