Prediction of Hydraulic Fractured Well Performance Using Empirical Correlation and Machine Learning

Abstract

Hydraulic fracturing has been established as one of production enhancement methods in the petroleum industry. This method is proven to increase productivity and reserves in low permeability reservoirs, while in medium permeability, it accelerates production without affecting well reserves. However, production result looks scattered and appears to have no direct correlation to individual parameters. It also tend to have a decreasing trend, hence the success ratio needs to be increased. Hydraulic fracturing in the South Sumatra area has been implemented since 2002 and there is plenty of data that can be analyzed to resolve the relationship between actual production with reservoir parameters and fracturing treatment. Empirical correlation approach and machine learning (ML) methods are both used to evaluate this relationship. Concept of Darcy's equation is utilized as basis for the empirical correlation on the actual data. The ML method is then applied to provide better predictions both for production rate and water cut. This method has also been developed to solve data limitations so that the prediction method can be used for all wells. Empirical correlation can gives an R² of 0.67, while ML can gives a better R² that is close to 0.80. Furthermore, this prediction method can be used for well candidate selection means.