Petroleum Fiscal Regimes Attractiveness in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand: Application on Offshore Project Development

Dwi Atty Mardiana, Pri Agung Rakhmanto, Shabrina Sri Riswati, Eleonora Sofilda, Saptianta Aribawa, Gabriela Martines

Abstract


Ketidakpastian kondisi geologi, teknologi maju, dan investasi dikombinasikan dengan fluktuasi harga migas dan rezim fiskal, merupakan faktor yang harus diperhatikan pada pengembangan lapangan migas lepas pantai dan laut dalam. Untuk mengakomodir kondisi tersebut, makalah ini akan membandingkan dan mengevaluasi hasil keekonomian dan peringkat daya tarik rezim fiskal yang berlaku di Indonesia, Malaysia, dan Thailand, yang diaplikasikan pada tiga wilayah kerja (WK) migas lepas pantai, meliputi WK frontier (Blok A), WK laut dalam yang baru dikembangkan (Blok B), dan WK perpanjangan (Blok C), dengan cadangan lebih dari 100 mmboe dan kisaran investasi 3 hingga 9 miliar dolar. Model arus kas terdiskonto akan digunakan untuk mengevaluasi profitabilitas kontraktor, sedangkan government take, front loading index, dan composite score akan digunakan untuk menentukan peringkat daya tarik rezim fiskal. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bagi hasil dan batas cost recovery mempengaruhi daya tarik fiskal ditinjau dari sisi government take. Front loading kontraktor muncul saat awal fase produksi yaitu dari komponen royalti dan bagi hasil. Peringkat daya tarik fiskal menghasilkan urutan yang berbeda untuk setiap WK, dimana PSC CR Indonesia paling menarik digunakan pada Blok A karena memiliki nilai FLI terendah, PSC GS Indonesia juga paling menarik digunakan pada Blok B karena memberikan hasil keekonomian terbaik, dan skema konsesi Thailand paling menarik digunakan pada Blok C dengan hasil keekonomian terbaik dan nilai FLI terendah. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa terlepas dari rezim fiskal yang digunakan di suatu negara, fleksibilitas parameter fiskal diperlukan untuk mengakomodasi kondisi ketidakpastian.


Keywords


rank attractiveness, composite score, offshore development, petroleum fiscal regime, production sharing contract.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.29017/SCOG.47.3.1633

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