PRODUCTION FORECASTING USING ARPS DECLINE CURVE MODEL WITH THE EFFECT OF ARTIFICIAL LIFT INSTALLATION

Abstract

There are many methods for predicting the production performance of oil wells, using the simplest method by looking at the declining trend of production, such as Decline Curve Analysis (DCA), Material Balanced, or using reservoir simulations. Each of these methods has its advantages and disadvantages. The DCA method, the Arps method, is often used in production forecast analysis to predict production performance and estimate remaining reserves. However, the limitation of this method is that if the production system changes, the trend of decline will also change. At the same time, the application in the field of taking the trend of decreasing production does not pay attention to changes in the production system. This study aims to see that changes in the well production system will affect the downward trend of well production, estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) value, and well lifetime. To see the effect of these changes, the initial data tested used the results of reservoir simulations and field data. From the evaluation results, it is found that if the production system changes during the production time, for example, from changing natural flow using artificial lifting assistance, the trend taken from the production profile will follow the behaviour of the reservoir if the trend is taken in the last system from the production profile, not from the start of production. If the downward trend is taken without regard to the changing system, then the prediction results will not be appropriate